A Diplomatic Victory. Strengthening Ukraine’s Position in the World As the War Begins to Turn
As Ukraine begins to achieve success on the battlefield, it is also decisively outmaneuvering Russia on the diplomatic front. Moreover, it is strengthening its position in the world and in regions of strategic importance to it. In fact, it is becoming an ally of the United States, one of the key components of the new Euro-Atlantic and European security system, a leader in Central and Eastern Europe, and a partner to the countries of the Middle East and the South Caucasus. All of this is laying the groundwork for Ukraine to reach a qualitatively new level as an influential actor in international relations, capable not only of defending itself but also of becoming a source of stability in Europe and the world.
Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has been ongoing for over four years, can be considered one of the greatest tragedies in the history of the Ukrainian nation. At the same time, it has toughened Ukraine, strengthening it into a nation capable of becoming an influential state with one of the most powerful armies in the world.
Now, nobody can impose their will on Ukraine, for it is Ukraine itself that can dictate its own terms. Take, for example, the situation surrounding the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9. In order for the parade to take place, Putin humbly begged Ukraine for a ceasefire and even appealed to US President Donald Trump to help resolve the issue.
As we can see, he did manage to secure permission for yet another demonstration of Russia’s “imperial might”. And it was not at all because he sought to intimidate Ukraine with his threat to launch a massive strike on the center of Kyiv. In this case, Ukraine merely demonstrated its humanity toward Russians and complied with Donald Trump’s request. After all, he had proposed a ceasefire, at least regarding long-range strikes.
However, rather than showcasing Russia’s “greatness”, these events revealed its powerlessness. Russia, which still considers its army “second in the world”, cannot even defend its own capital. Who could have even imagined what is happening to Russia right now in the war it started against Ukraine in February 2022! It set out to capture Kyiv within three days and organize its own parade on Khreshchatyk. Now it cannot even hold one properly on its own Red Square.
Against this background, Russian propagandists, who previously actively shaped the image of “great” Russia, are now, perhaps unconsciously, shaping the same image of Ukraine. According to them, Kyiv “doesn’t even listen to D. Trump”, “dictates its terms to EU leadership”, and “has brought NATO to its side”, as well as “appoints the heads of European countries”.
Indeed, only a major power can afford to do such things. But Ukraine isn’t imposing anything on anyone; it is merely defending itself and upholding its national interests. Moreover, it is doing it so effectively that it is truly becoming an influential power capable of changing the world.
For example, it was Ukraine’s fierce resistance to Russia’s aggression that halted the expansion of totalitarianism in the world, launched by Moscow as early as 2007 as part of Putin’s efforts to reignite the confrontation between Russia and the West. Even back then, China stood behind Russia, serving as the foundation of the global totalitarian system, which also includes North Korea, Iran, and several other similar countries. Russia is merely a tool that China uses in its confrontation with the West.
Today, this struggle is called “strategic competition”, although both the West and China rely on their armed forces in it. And the Russian-Ukrainian war is their battlefield. Therefore, by defending itself, Ukraine is also defending the entire Western world. That is why the West supports it. On a global level, this is demonstrated by the majority of the UN, the G7, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and other global institutions that are providing aid to Ukraine.
All of this fully applies to the United States and Europe, which are Ukraine’s main partners in the joint confrontation with Russia and its allies from among totalitarian countries, including China. Donald Trump has disrupted the coherence of this system. He began to cozy up to Russia, soured relations with Europe, and stopped providing aid to Ukraine; moreover, he began pressuring Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms for ending the war, which effectively mean Ukraine’s surrender.
However, despite his right-wing populist views, D. Trump continued to support Ukraine in terms of arms supplies, albeit at Europe’s expense. And then he finally realized Ukraine’s importance to the USA. According to his recent statement, Ukraine is America’s most reliable ally in Europe and better than any of its NATO allies. He even called the Armed Forces of Ukraine the most effective in Europe.
This is precisely how he assessed Ukraine’s actual participation in the UUSA and Israel’s military operation against Iran in terms of providing assistance in strengthening the air defense of American military bases in the Middle East. The same assistance was provided to America’s allies in the region. This was a successful move by Ukraine, which demonstrated that it stands on the same side as the USA in the fight against totalitarianism – or, as it is also called, the “axis of evil”. In doing so, it effectively replaced Europe when the latter refused to support the USA’s actions regarding Iran.
However, that is not all. Ukraine plays a significant role in the USA’s domestic and foreign policy. Since 2014, the Ukrainian issue has been actively exploited by both major US political forces – namely, the Republican and Democratic parties and their candidates – in their election campaigns. And it doesn’t matter in what context this was done for Ukraine – positive or negative. In any case, it demonstrates Ukraine’s importance for the USA.
Ukraine’s decisive influence on US policy toward Russia and Europe can also be considered entirely evident. Ukraine’s firm stance, refusing to comply with Russia’s demands to suspend the war, prevents Donald Trump from restoring relations with Russia and using it for his political, economic, and military objectives. In particular, this concerns isolating Russia from China to weaken both, as well as gaining the opportunity to implement joint projects to develop Russian natural resources. Although the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war also suits the USA, as it weakens Russia, which, no matter what, remains America’s main military adversary.
At the same time, Ukraine’s current role as a key force in preventing Russia’s possible attack on Europe allows the USA to redeploy part of its forces from the European theater to the Asia-Pacific theater to contain China. On the one hand, Ukraine brings the USA and Europe together on the issue of providing military and technical assistance to the country; on the other hand, it is a source of disagreement between them regarding the terms for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. As is well known, the USA agrees with Moscow’s demands that Ukraine cede the entire territory of the Donbas to Russia. Europe is categorically against this.
Ukraine’s resilience in countering Russia is the main obstacle to the spread of Russian military expansion into Europe as well. In light of this, Ukraine has effectively become one of the key elements of the new Euro-Atlantic and European security system. Indeed, it serves as the frontline of security in the southeastern direction.
Furthermore, Ukraine is sharing its experience of war with Russia with Europe, specifically with the European components of NATO and the EU. This is particularly true regarding the use of UAVs and artificial intelligence systems. Currently, centers for sharing this experience are already operational in Europe, and Ukrainian units are participating in numerous NATO military exercises.
For its part, Europe serves as an operational and strategic rear base for Ukraine. Key logistics hubs through which American weapons are supplied to Ukraine are located in Poland and Romania. Meanwhile, major energy infrastructure connecting Ukraine to European gas and electricity grids runs through Hungary and Slovakia. Oil refineries are also located there, supplying diesel fuel to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
All of this is reinforced by Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO’s strategic defense plans and European rearmament programs implemented by the European Union.
For example, NATO troop deployments and operational plans on the southeastern flank of the European theater of operations are already being developed with Ukraine and its Armed Forces in mind, which are defending it against a potential Russian invasion. This allows the Alliance to increase the volume of military resources directed to the northeastern flank, where the threat of Russian aggression is growing.
Meanwhile, the European and Ukrainian defense industries are jointly producing weapons for both Europe and Ukraine. At this, an increasing number of Ukrainian and joint defense industry enterprises are being established in European countries. This ensures they remain out of reach of Russian airstrikes. Additionally, jobs are being created for Ukrainian refugees.
As a result, assistance to Ukraine has become a key factor in European security, as recognized by NATO and EU leaderships. This has led to the formation of new alliances involving European and other nations. The main ones are the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, known as the “Ramstein” format and the Coalition of the Willing. The former includes more than 50 countries and coordinates military and technical assistance to Ukraine. The second brings together countries willing to participate in providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
European aid to our country is adequately funded. For instance, the EU has allocated a EUR 90 billion loan to Ukraine over two years, secured by Russian financial assets frozen in Europe. For its part, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has allocated $60 billion to Ukraine. Additional funds for Ukraine are also being provided by its partners. In particular, within the framework of the “Ramstein” group, $35 billion has been secured for Ukraine for 2026.
All of this strengthens the foundation for Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and NATO as one of the leading members of these organizations. Moreover, in parallel with NATO, or in its place, a new military-political alliance could be formed around Ukraine. In other words, Ukraine is confidently becoming a regional leader.
Ukraine is also strengthening its position and influence in other regions of the world where it has interests. In particular, this applies to the Middle East, the Persian Gulf region, and the South Caucasus. Those regions are of interest to Ukraine in terms of potential access to their oil and gas resources. Besides, the countries in those regions represent a potential market for Ukrainian goods, including weapons. They also serve as a platform for developing Ukraine’s cooperation with other states, particularly the United States.
Indeed, Ukraine’s importance to the United States and the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf has increased due to the USA and Israel’s military operations against Iran. This has been discussed before, but let’s return to this issue once more. It is known that Iran, in response to the actions of the United States and Israel, began launching massive missile and drone strikes against US military bases and their allies in the region. This created a demand for expertise and means to counter Iranian missiles and UAVs. In fact, the only country with such experience is Ukraine, which has opened up broad opportunities for its application in the interests of the United States and the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
After some hesitation, the United States accepted Ukraine’s proposal to assist in strengthening the air defense of its military bases. This laid the foundation for an alliance, which was later confirmed by Donald Trump. He even lifted restrictions on the import of Ukrainian weapons into the United States. Meanwhile, countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf accepted Ukraine’s assistance without any hesitation. In total, Ukraine sent over 200 of its UAV countermeasures specialists to the region. This laid a strong foundation for the development of active cooperation between Ukraine and those countries in other spheres as well.
In fact, a “second front” was also opened against Russia, which supports Iran.
Relations between Ukraine and the countries of the South Caucasus have developed dynamically. High-level relations were established with Azerbaijan and Armenia. In particular, in April, Ukraine and Azerbaijan signed six new agreements covering the defense sector, legal mutual assistance, and the economy.
These achievements are the result of the consistent and effective work of Ukraine’s leadership, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself. Last year, he made about 60 foreign visits, during which he visited 25 countries, and also hosted over 100 foreign leaders in Ukraine. The main focus was on strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities and implementing Ukraine’s “Plan for Victory”.
Since the beginning of this year, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has participated in the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in January and the Munich Security Conference (February), as well as the European Political Community Summit in Armenia (May). He also met with King Charles III of the United Kingdom, Chancellor of the FRG F. Merz, and the leadership of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Lithuania.
It is particularly telling that Armenia is a member of the CSTO and is therefore considered a military and political ally of Russia, on whose territory Russia maintains a military base. However, this did not prevent Zelenskyy’s visit to Armenia and his meeting with the country’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Against the background of Ukraine’s international achievements, Russia’s influence in the world is rapidly declining, a result of the West’s efforts to isolate it and its loss of the ability to defend its interests. Indeed, following Russia’s first attack on Ukraine in 2014, it was expelled from the G8, while the USA, NATO, and the EU have significantly curtailed cooperation with it.
After the start of full-scale war in 2022, Russia lost Syria and, in general, North Africa, as well as Venezuela and its positions in the Caribbean region. Russia’s influence has significantly weakened in the South Caucasus, where it is being pushed out by the USA and Türkiye, and in Central Asia, which is increasingly coming under China’s control.
Moscow’s attempts to bring pro-Russian forces to power in Romania and Moldova and to maintain them in Hungary have failed. Even those pro-Russian leaders in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria who came to power with Moscow’s support are now distancing themselves from it. As a result, Russia’s ability to advance its interests within the EU and NATO through those countries has been significantly reduced.
Moscow had hoped to be able to shape the world alongside Washington and China. But neither the USA nor China considers Russia to be an equal center of power in the world.
An indicator of what Russia actually represents on the international stage was the composition of the foreign delegations at the May 9 parade in Moscow. It was visited only by President of Belarus A. Lukashenko, President of Laos T. Sisoulith, the Supreme Ruler of Malaysia Sultan Ibrahim, Presidents of the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia B. Gunba and South Ossetia A. Gagloev, as well as representatives of the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina…
And this is a country that claims to be a “great world power”! Not only has Russia failed to become one, but it is also beginning to lose its sovereignty and turn into China’s province. That is exactly how China already views it.
President of the RF Putin himself faces the threat of arrest by the International Court of Justice and is therefore “barred from leaving the country”; he cannot represent the RF or pursue its policies on the international stage. The only exception here is China, as the de facto owner of Russia and several of its satellites, such as Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia.
All of this is a consequence of Putin’s policies. Putin attempted to intimidate the West by attacking Ukraine and return to Russia’s the sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union. And now Russia is paying the price for his reckless actions and miscalculations.
Thus, despite all the losses and challenges Ukraine has faced due to Russia’s attack, the war is strengthening our nation, making it more resilient. It is now confidently emerging as the leader of Central and Eastern Europe, with the most powerful army in the region.
At this, Ukraine’s fierce resistance to Russia’s aggression has effectively halted the advance of totalitarianism in the world. This makes Ukraine important to the USA and Europe. Moreover, Ukraine is already one of the key components of the Euro-Atlantic and European security system.
Ukraine’s position and influence are also strengthening in countries in other regions of the world, particularly in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf region, and the South Caucasus. This lays the groundwork for the development of Ukraine’s relations with those countries and the advancement of Ukrainian interests there.
Our adversary, Russia, unlike Ukraine, is losing its authority and ceding ground to other countries that are eroding its sphere of influence. In other words, in addition to its lack of tangible successes on the front lines in Ukraine and the stalling of its offensive operations, Russia is also suffering setbacks and defeats on the diplomatic front.
Overall, these circumstances point to the failure of Putin’s policies and his ambitions to transform Russia into a major world power. Instead, it is becoming a global pariah and, in fact, China’s satellite.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
